Working Theory: This Election Is Not Close

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Not when Joe Biden was the Dem nominee, not when Kamala Harris stepped in for him. I suspect the US electorate has no intention of putting Donald Trump back in the White House.

It would be safe to stipulate that at about 30% of voters. Those are the people who watch far right-wing propaganda channels like Fox and Newsmax, and don’t understand that they are being conned for the purposes of perpetuating & cementing oligarchy – the few whom hold most of the world’s wealth.

From the mainstream press, we get canards like ;

“Well the economy is good but people don’t feel it”
“Illegal immigration is a crisis”

What is more plausible is that a close race is a figment of a press which wants that for better ratings. And Media Inc owners, whom serve their corporate interests as much as they do their 4th Estate obligations to the public. Did they want that Trump tax cut in 2016 when they spent 15 months on a zilch Hillary Clinton SOS emails story, as if it were Watergate? Again, more plausible than not.


> But How Are The Polls Wrong Then

Well, modern day political polling has been off the mark with some regularity. If Media Inc wants a close election for better ratings, then it might be in the interests of polling firms to provide a compliant product to them. Some polls (see the 538 website) use low sample sizes under 800 respondents. Simply run it twice for different outcomes.

And there is a political tactic afoot of “flooding the zone” with polls of biased methodology to create poll averages, that make an election appear closer than it is.

There is a Salon article from March, which specifically outs the NY Times for overweighting rural voters. Of course Trump is close using that cracked methodology. Again it goes to motive. NYT might want a close election for more clicks, reads and subscribers.

I will stand corrected, but believe that a surge is coming that even accurate polling would not be able to pick up. Does a “likely voters” model account for new voters coming off the sidelines? Minorities who may want a president whom has lived their experiences? Women who want a GOP defeated that cancelled their repro rights? Who want a female perspective running USA, for once?

VP Harris has reach & appeal into those combined demographics, beyond any candidate in US political history. Including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

After being shell shocked in 2016 and having to watch Trump get sworn in on an Electoral College victory of 71,000 over 3 states – while losing the popular vote by 2.9 million – it’s easy to get lulled in to an 8-year media narrative that he is highly electable. But I maintain that he is not.

Trump went on to lose in 2020 by 7 million votes, not surprised if it’s 15 or 18 million this time.

Roy@Balkingpoints

Published 2024 / all rights reserved

Segregated Louisville

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Childhood home of Muhammad Ali in Louisville


Where is John Mellencamp when you need him…

Saw an article about the childhood home of Muhammad Ali going up for sale & it sort of got me going on the topic.

There is a long ancillary about racially segregated Louisville, and “white flight” from it’s west end suburbs. A ton of race relations history that is not the purview of this article. Including what was no less than a terrorist attack upon the home of an African-American family in Shively (1954). And the persecution of Carl Braden for helping that family.

My mom knew his wife Anne. Carl & Anne Braden were both in the trenches for social justice and racial equality in Louisville, in an era when rampant bigotry made that a very risky thing.

Can speak as a resident / 1960’s as a kid, 1970’s through 1984. I would gather there has been a gradual creep of integrated suburbs since that time.

White Flight went on through & beyond the period in which Ali lived in the west end house above. Both of my parents grew up there when it was caucasian suburbia. They were in other cities for a while in their 20’s – then when they returned and were able to buy a starter house, they bought in the east end.

Neither were racist and they never taught us that. Yet they still moved away from a racially-changing part of Louisville.

The east end was highly segregated in my childhood. Just a few Af-Am kids at our schools. Federal fair housing laws were essential to help change a prevailing dynamic of housing discrimination. Court-ordered busing to create integrated schools, came about in the 1970’s across numerous cities.

Although I ducked out of busing by the assignment system (first letter of last name), I volunteered for urban Central High School for 2 years. Students from all over the east end schools were there via busing and I made friends I never would have otherwise.

The schools were effectively, still segregated after busing. White & Black socialized with their own, with some exceptions of course. What it accomplished was a lot less transparent. It puts one in proximity racially & you slowly build a comfort level that you’d be precluded from in a segregated school.

Busing has long since gone defunct – replaced by magnet schools and relaxed requirements of racial student makeup. It was a fraught system from the standpoint of parents being a long way away from their child during the school day. As mandates go it was rather draconian, but arguably a kick-starter for a future of declining segregation. More acceptance of ethnic diversity, less ignorance & fear.

Ali helped change attitudes also. Local kid wins the Olympic gold medal and goes on to be regarded as the greatest boxer ever. Boxing was a major sport back then, the top fighters were household names and pretty much everyone I knew was an Ali fan.

Of course that applies on a national level as well – Ali, Jackie Robinson, Jim Brown, Bill Russell – talented athletes whom were also catalysts for racial tolerance & integration.

Roy@Balkingpoints

Published 2024 / all rights reserved

Would Be 83, and John Lennon Could Have Been

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The Lennon memorial “Strawberry Fields” 12/8/2023 in NYC

It was 43 years ago today…

An inartful way to phrase the death of John Lennon. December 8, 1980.

Beside the tragedy is a jarring backstory. John – now arguably a godfather of modern progressive values – had become a quite vocal activist against the Vietnam war. He had taken up residence in New York City after the breakup of the Beatles, and sitting President Nixon wanted him dealt with. Nixon was like that.

Nixon tried to deport John. Lennon got an attorney and went into legal stall tactics. It worked. Within a couple of years Nixon was dealing with his Watergate scandal and being forced to resign in 1974. Additionally, Nixon had agreed in 1973 to a peace treaty to end the Vietnam war.

So John got through the cracks, Gerald Ford had no reason to hassle him and John stayed in NYC.

In fact Ford wanted a domestic healing after that war, granting amnesty to draft evaders.

And this is the problem: Had Nixon succeeded in sending John back to UK, he isn’t shot on 12/8/1980 in New York and may well still be alive (age 83).

😬

Roy@Balkingpoints


Published 2023 / all rights reserved


Couric Voice / Steal The Move

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image source: wcpo.com

Will sometimes pull up Katie Couric’s podcast on the cell while at chores around the house, because of the guests she gets and also because of that trademark broadcaster voice. It’s a good one and arguably was a success component in the best job of her career, Today Show co-host. Her voice was perfect for that kind of show.

She shared something on one of those podcasts I never knew – early in her career she retrained her voice with regard to it’s pitch.

Pretty low female pitch for Katie, right? When she started out in TV, she said she had a higher voice and was advised to shift it downward. It’s not that hard, you just find a pitch you’re comfortable with and force self to use it until it becomes second nature. That was super advice for her career.

Taking an objective viewpoint here – not anything in the way of critique of higher voices. But this is interesting & something almost never discussed in the public realm.

The trick of shifting vocal pitch downward is only useful for women, unless it’s a man with a high voice / same benefit. The lower pitches just resonate better, and that can help you in a job.

So Couric effectively tossed out a tip to anybody who wants it. Try it out on friends – worth a shot.

Roy@Balkingpoints

Published 2018 / all rights reserved

Balkingpoints (maybe) impacts 4/14 Democratic Debate

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My tweet above to the Dem debate moderators. Sure enough, Dana Bash asked the question. Here is the clip >




It’s possible of course she was already planning to ask it. The reason I wanted it in, and had asked moderators in previous debates to include it, is that it’s a debilitating retort to something I consider fundamentally dishonorable. Sanders has been citing Hillary’s Super PAC and corporate campaign contributors, and her speaking fees for months as if that automatically made her guilty of selling off her votes & views.

Sanders knows it’s garbage. He knows he has zero evidence she ever let contributions affect her policy positions, and that Barack Obama and Bill Clinton stood up against corporate interests and for working Americans many times – even though that kind of contribution helped them get elected.

Sanders has wanted to just run with the innuendo, imply she is corrupt and never have to back it up with any concrete example. It’s Rovian, and he was finally busted on it Thursday night.

He gives what appears to be an entirely unprepared answer – remarkable in itself. First he says Hillary’s decision that supports his months of guilt insinuation, is the 2008 Wall Street crash. Then he makes the brand new point that she takes money…

Pretty weak.

You don’t publicly impugn someone’s honesty and character, unless you can prove what you are saying. Sorry Mr. Sanders, it’s sleaze politics.

Roy@Balkingpoints

Published 2016 / all rights reserved