If you reached this Balkingpoints article by direct external link, stop by the front page for a rotating satellite view of the earth at night
Not when Joe Biden was the Dem nominee, not when Kamala Harris stepped in for him. I suspect the US electorate has no intention of putting Donald Trump back in the White House.
It would be safe to stipulate that at about 30% of voters. Those are the people who watch far right-wing propaganda channels like Fox and Newsmax, and don’t understand that they are being conned for the purposes of perpetuating & cementing oligarchy – the few whom hold most of the world’s wealth.
From the mainstream press, we get canards like ;
“Well the economy is good but people don’t feel it”
“Illegal immigration is a crisis”
What is more plausible is that a close race is a figment of a press which wants that for better ratings. And Media Inc owners, whom serve their corporate interests as much as they do their 4th Estate obligations to the public. Did they want that Trump tax cut in 2016 when they spent 15 months on a zilch Hillary Clinton SOS emails story, as if it were Watergate? Again, more plausible than not.
> But How Are The Polls Wrong Then
Well, modern day political polling has been off the mark with some regularity. If Media Inc wants a close election for better ratings, then it might be in the interests of polling firms to provide a compliant product to them. Some polls (see the 538 website) use low sample sizes under 800 respondents. Simply run it twice for different outcomes.
And there is a political tactic afoot of “flooding the zone” with polls of biased methodology to create poll averages, that make an election appear closer than it is.
There is a Salon article from March, which specifically outs the NY Times for overweighting rural voters. Of course Trump is close using that cracked methodology. Again it goes to motive. NYT might want a close election for more clicks, reads and subscribers.
I will stand corrected, but believe that a surge is coming that even accurate polling would not be able to pick up. Does a “likely voters” model account for new voters coming off the sidelines? Minorities who may want a president whom has lived their experiences? Women who want a GOP defeated that cancelled their repro rights? Who want a female perspective running USA, for once?
VP Harris has reach & appeal into those combined demographics, beyond any candidate in US political history. Including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
After being shell shocked in 2016 and having to watch Trump get sworn in on an Electoral College victory of 71,000 over 3 states – while losing the popular vote by 2.9 million – it’s easy to get lulled in to an 8-year media narrative that he is highly electable. But I maintain that he is not.
Trump went on to lose in 2020 by 7 million votes, not surprised if it’s 15 or 18 million this time.
And at that – stand corrected…
Trump is on track at this hour to win. And likely with a popular vote majority, which would be the first time in the three elections of 2016, 2020 and 2024. Also the first time since Bush 2004, for Republicans winning the popular vote for president.
There were no indicators of that outcome, only close polling with VP Harris generally ahead both nationally and in the so-called swing states. Even exit polling favored her over Trump. She was drawing massive crowds, Trump was not.
There were early vote trends for a majority of the vote being female, and that demographic polled in favor of VP Harris by 15%. Polling also showed an intended cross over vote for Harris from GOPs of about 9%, prompted by prominent Republicans endorsing her. Seems those Harris advantages just did not materialize, whatever the reason. It will be a while before the dust settles on how the nation voted, demographically and by issues.
It appears MI and WI will put Trump over the top to 270+ electoral votes. Those states may finish close enough for recounts, however those rarely work out for the trailing candidate. Where there was an inside track for VP Harris since she stepped in for Joe Biden, it now looks like virtually no path to victory.